Liverpool are the leading contenders to win the 2025–26 Premier League, according to new projections by the CIES Football Observatory.
The research group, which applies statistical models to evaluate league outcomes, has given Arne Slot’s side a 28.9% probability of retaining their crown. The Reds secured the title last season in emphatic fashion, finishing 10 points ahead of Arsenal in Slot’s debut campaign.
Arsenal are considered the next most likely champions at 18.8%, while Chelsea (16.2%) narrowly edge Manchester City (14.4%) in the rankings. United, who last lifted the trophy in 2013–14, are rated just 2.6% likely to end their drought despite being the league’s most successful club historically.
The CIES model extends beyond England, offering probabilities across 29 top-flight competitions. Among the highlights:
The CIES methodology combines sporting, economic, and demographic indicators — including metrics such as passes into the final third and squad transfer values — to generate its probabilities.
With Liverpool emerging as Premier League frontrunners in the data, Slot’s side will be under pressure to match statistical expectations in a season where competition at the top looks increasingly compressed.
