Just five games into the Premier League season, it may seem far too early to draw conclusions from the table. Recent history, however, suggests the standings may already be more revealing than expected.
Manchester City and Arsenal occupying the top two places will surprise few, but can Brentford really qualify for Europe? Can Hull stay up? And could Tottenham find themselves battling relegation once again?
Based on the past decade, the early table deserves more attention than you might think.
There is, however, significant uncertainty surrounding Manchester City's position. The Premier League leaders were found guilty of the majority of the charges brought against them and have appealed the decision.
Any eventual sanction could have a major impact on the standings. Until that process is resolved, the current table remains the only one that can be assessed.
Last season provides a striking example of how quickly the Premier League table can begin taking shape.
After five matches, 13 of the 20 clubs, or 65%, eventually finished the season within four positions of where they already stood.
Eventual champions Arsenal were second after five games, while Sunderland occupied seventh place and remained there at the end of the campaign. Two of the three teams eventually relegated were already inside the bottom three.
There were significant exceptions.
Aston Villa climbed from the relegation zone to finish inside the top four, while Tottenham moved in the opposite direction and eventually finished 17th.
However, those dramatic changes are relatively rare.
Across the past 10 Premier League seasons, 138 of 200 teams, or 69%, finished within four places of their position after five matches.
Of those, 27 ended the season in exactly the same position they occupied at this stage.
Another 50 teams moved between five and nine places, meaning only 12 teams across the past decade shifted by 10 or more positions after their opening five matches. Three of those cases came last season.
One area where the early table has proved considerably less reliable is the title race.
The Premier League leader after five matches has gone on to win the title in only one of the past six seasons, Manchester City in 2023-24, and just three times across the past 11 campaigns.
Even City's perfect five wins from five this season offers no guarantees.
They also won their opening five league matches under Manuel Pellegrini in 2015-16 and during Pep Guardiola's first season in 2016-17, but failed to win the title in either campaign. They did, however, convert another perfect five-game start into the championship in 2023-24.
Chelsea in 2018-19, Arsenal in 2022-23 and Liverpool last season also had 100% records after five games without ultimately becoming champions.
There is a more encouraging statistic for this season's top two.
The eventual Premier League champions have occupied one of the top two positions after five matches in each of the past four seasons.
The last champions to sit outside the top two at this stage were Manchester City in 2021-22, when they were fifth with 10 points.
If recent history holds, and setting aside the possibility of sanctions affecting the standings, Manchester City and Arsenal appear well positioned to remain central to the title race.
The battle for European qualification can also become surprisingly clear at an early stage.
In 2024-25, every team occupying the top eight after five games eventually finished inside the top eight, although the final order changed.
The top six after five games in 2019-20 also remained the eventual top six, while the same was true of the top seven in 2016-17.
That provides encouragement for clubs making strong starts and suggests early-season form can have lasting consequences.
While being top after five games has offered few guarantees in recent years, sitting bottom has become an increasingly worrying indicator.
Tottenham are currently at the foot of the table after finishing only one place above relegation in each of the previous two campaigns.
The team sitting bottom after five games has been relegated in six of the past seven Premier League seasons.
Historically, however, the outlook was not always so bleak.
Between 2013-14 and 2018-19, only one of the six teams bottom after five games was eventually relegated: Newcastle United in 2015-16.
Crystal Palace provided one of the strongest recoveries, climbing from bottom after five games to finish 11th in 2017-18.
Tottenham themselves have previously escaped from an even worse position.
Spurs were bottom with just two points after five matches in 2008-09. Juande Ramos was replaced by Harry Redknapp three games later, and Tottenham recovered to finish eighth.
Looking beyond last place, the early standings also provide clues about which teams could face a difficult season.
At least one club occupying the bottom three after five matches has been relegated in each of the past eight seasons.
That puts early pressure on Tottenham, Fulham and Coventry.
The pattern becomes even stronger when the bottom six is considered.
In each of the past three seasons, all three relegated clubs were already among the bottom six after five games.
If that trend continues, Bournemouth, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace could also find themselves involved in the battle for survival.
The last teams to sit outside the bottom six after five matches and still suffer relegation were Leeds United and Southampton in 2022-23. Both had actually started inside the top half, sitting seventh and ninth respectively.
Hull and Ipswich, currently eighth and 11th, will be hoping to avoid a similar collapse.
There are still 33 matches to play and plenty can change through injuries, transfers, managerial decisions and fluctuations in form.
History nevertheless suggests the Premier League table after five games should not simply be dismissed.
Across the past decade, more than two-thirds of teams have finished within four positions of where they stood at this stage.
The identity of the eventual champions remains difficult to predict so early, but the broader shape of the league, particularly the European contenders and relegation candidates, can become established surprisingly quickly.
The Premier League season may only just be getting started, but the table could already be telling us more than we realise.
